Groundhog Day is fast approaching, and many of us are waiting with baited breath for the marmots’ prognostication for spring. Is the Vancouver Island Marmot as skilled and knowledgeable predictor of future weather patterns as the better-known Groundhogs out east?

Answering this question poses some challenges. Our favorite marmot weather vane is “Van Island Violet”, a resident of the slopes of Mount Washington. However, as it turns out, on February 2nd Violet will be doing what she does every year at this time: hibernating under several meters of snow and rock.

Undaunted, and after years of research by dedicated staff at the Marmot Recovery Foundation, we have reached the following, wholly remarkable conclusion: a sleeping marmot is unlikely to see its shadow. Therefore, pending confirmation on Friday, an early spring is likely in the works.

Careful analysis of historic trends confirms that Vancouver Island’s spring is indeed significantly earlier than the rest of Canada’s. To our minds, this corroborates the Vancouver Island Marmot’s prognostication skill and our interpretation of their somnolent pronouncements, though the forecasts have not always been 100% accurate.

There are four species of marmots in Canada, including the best-known weather predicting marmot, the Groundhog (Marmota monax), and the Vancouver Island Marmot (Marmota vancouverensis). Only the Vancouver Island Marmot is considered at risk in Canada.